He said he expects New Jersey to impose new restrictions as the new eruption continues. But if residents ignore warnings and go about their winter holidays as normal, the picture will be even bleaker, Murphy said. A positive PDO regime with a moderate La Nina can set up a pretty tricky combination of forcing parameters. Now this all might be screaming for a cold and snowy winter, but I am also noticing some other factors as well. Temperatures will average below normal in December, near normal in January, and above normal in February. These storm tracks tend to produce mostly rainfall along the coast, although a brief initial snowfall or period of icing is possible. “It did not in the spring. Below the general forecast, there will be a detailed analysis of the forcing parameters on this winter pattern and what factors I will be watching that could produce a warmer and colder outcome for this season. Television stations and weather sources issue them yearly with a lot of excitement and advertisement. The MJO is measured in 8 phases. Here is a look at the winter weather prediction maps by month for the 2020 – 2021 winter. One model, by the Health Department, forecast a high of 8,747 COVID-19 patients in mid-January. The model, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, shows deaths topping 100 a day in late December and continuing up throughout the first month of 2021. The storm track is likely to feature several snowstorms and ice events. Phil Murphy called them “jarring” and “stark” in their worst-case scenarios. I wish I could give you an exact number for your street, but the science simply isn’t there for an exact snowfall prediction, although many will try. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released weather maps that attempt to forecast weather for the 2020 – 2021 winter. thanks For Watching!Be sure to like the video!Well, it's about that time of year again! Once a year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts out its winter forecast for the United States. What does the housing market forecast look like for the rest of the year? Submitted by Jaden Iarusso on August 29, 2020 - 9:01pm. But if residents ignore warnings and go about their winter holidays as normal, the picture will be even bleaker, Murphy said. When low-pressure systems redevelop from the Ohio River Valley, most of the storms will develop north of these locations to produce limited precipitation. That was the Farmer’s Almanac 2021 winter forecast, which is predicting a snowy winter – one that we haven't seen in a while. When the MJO is in the warm phases, you can expect a storm track cutting from the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes and when the MJO is in a cold phase the storm track will likely be suppressed through the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. NJ forecast:Crummy weather for Halloween "I think you're going to see a touch of winter come in in December. Closed sales … At the disease’s peak on April 14, New Jersey hospitals were treating 8,270 coronavirus patients last spring. As a result, future Polar and Arctic air masses are less likely to moderate quickly while moving through the Eastern two-thirds of the United States. So let me break down the current environment and what this data means for the winter forecast. Temperatures will average below normal in December, near normal in January, and above normal in February. Weather in New Jersey in december 2020. So now we have the basic forecast and the forcing mechanisms behind the forecast, now let me list some of the factors that can cause this forecast to change drastically warmer or colder depending on the factors. The closer to the coast, the faster the transition to rain. Near to below normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation can be expected. By breaking down these factors, we can also pick up on features that may create havoc with the seasonal forecast. The closer to the coast, the faster the transition to rain. 2020-2021 Winter Extended Forecast; 20 Signs Of A Hard Winter Ahead; Weather Folklore; Weather History; Our Forecast Accuracy; Hurricane Preparedness and Guide; Long Range Weather Forecast. It was predicable that as those restrictions were lifted, the disease would begin to spread again, he said. Pretty much off the mark for July August.As far as the predicted 2020-2021 winter forecast goes, any good yankee knows if you have a particularly hot dry summer you will have a colder and snowier winter. I can’t rule out a split of the Polar Vortex. The storm track is likely to feature several snowstorms and ice events. I have to be honest that this factor is very much a huge wild card. The evolution of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation or QBO this Fall has seen the QBO shift from an easterly (negative) to a westerly (positive)  state over the past 12 weeks. Monthly Statewide/Divisional/County (1895-Present) Monthly Station. The state’s models did not forecast coronavirus deaths, though Murphy said they are expected to continue to rise. Interior: Waves of cold conditions can be expected. FORCING FACTORS FOR THE WINTER OF 2020/21. Great Lakes:  Waves of Arctic/Polar air masses will produce enhanced Lake Effect Snow this season. Old Farmer's Almanac Winter 2020-21 Predictions For NJ - Point Pleasant, NJ - The Old Farmer's Almanac just released its long-range winter forecast for NJ. I am of course watering down this definition as the MJO is a bit more complicated but that’s the overall idea. Unveiling the results of two sets of models the government has crunched to predict the pandemic’s path, Gov. Southern Plains To Tennessee River Valley To Southern Mid Atlantic: This region will feature an occasional Polar or Arctic air mass to invade, especially in December through the middle of January. Waves of Arctic/Polar air masses will produce enhanced Lake Effect Snow this season. Winter 2020-21 Outlook: Cold December Could Be Followed by Mild Conditions. Snowfall will be near to above normal, but ice concerns will be a constant factor. Alberta clippers (purple) also would be more frequent and be capable of slowing down to produce significant snowfall for the region at times, however most of the time a cold light to moderate snowfall event is usually the result. So in this case, while ENSO is in a moderate east based La Nina state, the overall warm Pacific anomalies would suggest the atmospheric response would more likely be a weak east based La Nina 500 MB pattern. For one, the MJO is not responding to these influences this month. I like to study the stratosphere at around 50 MB to gain a clear understanding of what is happening at this level and how that influence can impact the troposphere. 08-01-2020 29°F to 41°F. When the MJO is in phases 3 through 6, the eastern United States tends to have warmer weather patterns and when the MJO is in phases 7 through 2, the eastern United States tends to have colder weather patterns. Better Not Be a 2020 Winter. Forgoston said he has not run his numbers in a few weeks, but that they would likely fall within the ranges offered by the state, which also included lower hospitalization figures if residents abide public health restrictions. Northern New England:  Near to below normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation can be expected. However, this year it looks as though NOAA is at a lost as to how much precipitation will fall over most of the United States over the 2019/20 winter. Last year this forcing mechanism created havoc with the winter forecast as an area of cold air from the ionosphere rapidly intensified the Polar Vortex in the middle of December. Whether you are a weather enthusiast or an owner of a business; you can trust in the unique weather consultation provided only by NY NJ PA Weather! Illinois coronavirus daily case tally jumps back above 12,000, with 125 more deaths reported . To wrap up tropical forcing, this year La Nina is the dominant tropical forcing mechanism. In this year’s orientation, this La Nina is closest to 2010/11 and 1995/96 (note, there was an error in which 09/10 and 94/95 were typed, but that was incorrect). This region will feature an occasional Polar or Arctic air mass to invade, especially in December through the middle of January. If a sustained negative NAO pattern becomes established, this weather pattern will produce significant snowfall for these locations. The current state of the stratosphere is averaging above normal with a focus of warm anomalies over northern Asia, eastern North Americas, and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. I am expecting that type of atmospheric response to continuing given the warmer anomalies outside of ENSO. There used to be a time when you can look at the state of the ENSO and roll out a reliable forecast. Central Plains To Upper Mid West To Ohio River Valley To Northern Mid Atlantic To Southern New England:  An active storm track and very volatile temperature pattern with weeks of well above followed by well below normal temperatures can be expected through the winter. Yet none of the models’ figures were a surprise to Eric Forgoston, a Montclair State University applied mathematics professor who has built his own coronavirus models. The extremely active hurricane season has caused sea surface temperatures to run below normal in the Gulf of Mexico heading into the winter, especially in the coastal waters while the western Atlantic remains warm with widespread above normal sea surface temperatures. 06-01-2020 34°F to 45°F. 05-01-2020 34°F to 43°F. Waves of above and below normal temperatures are expected which will average above normal while near to below normal precipitation can be expected. “The more we can change them for the better, the sooner we can crush the curve of the second wave and get ourselves gliding down the other side.”. NOAA’s winter forecast for the U.S. favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North, thanks in part to an ongoing La Nina. I am noting the orientation of this La Nina event because we know that the closer the warm water is to the dateline (180° Longitude), the more likely the 500 MB pattern in the Pacific will feature a strong upper-level low-pressure system or trough around the Aleutian Islands and a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska through western Canada. We’ll get to La Nina in a second, but let’s look at all of the Pacific. New York City is forecast to get blanketed by 18 to 23 inches of snow this winter, which is 3 to 8 inches lower than its seasonal average of 26.1 inches. The potential for a similar event to occur is unheard of but given the quiet sun we have in place heading into the winter, I can’t 100% discount something unusual happening. If the center’s forecast holds up, 2020-2021 will be the second winter in a row with above-average temperatures. Community Rules apply to all content you upload or otherwise submit to this site. By breaking down these factors, we can also pick up on features that may create havoc with the seasonal forecast. The "Farmers Almanac" is calling it the "winter of the great divide" in its 2020-2021 outlook. Click on the map ... Winter 2020–2021 Snow Event Totals. Snowfall will be near to above normal, but ice concerns will be a constant factor. Northern Plains: This region will feature constant invasions of Polar and Arctic air masses which will keep temperatures below normal for the season by 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit. The greatest probabilities (larger than 60 percent) are forecast for parts of the … The winter for the northern Mid Atlantic will come down to simply how many times high latitude blocking aligns to force a storm track over the coastal waters rather than over the Delaware River Valley. We are at that time of year again where everyone is wondering what the winter will hold for us. his 2020-2021 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. … I-95 Corridor and Coast: While waves of cold conditions can be expected, the storm track is likely to feature much snow to ice to rain events. Please subscribe today to NJ.com. In this colder regime, the focus for snowfall shifts towards the Tennesee and Ohio River Valleys on through the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Subscribe to NJ.com », Riley Yates | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com. Precipitation will be above normal. The two maps are split on the type of high latitude blocking regime we can see this winter. Photo by N. Stefano. We stared at the abyss but we did not fall into it, and we cannot at any cost.”. However, if the negative phases dominate which is possible, we’ll have a far snowier winter for the coastal plain than I currently expect. However, the storm track will be to the north of these locations normally for much of the winter. However, the potential for high latitude blocking is far greater than with a strong Polar Vortex over the North Pole. January, typically the … This influence combined with some additional impacts from solar particles on the ionosphere should support a weakening Polar Vortex. The best potential for snowstorms will be in December to the middle of January, although winter storms will be possible through late March. As far as the strength of this event, you can make a case for a designation for a strong La Nina coming on, especially when you look at the sub-surface temperature anomalies, however, I would caution against that approach. So one of the wild cards this winter is how often the MJO will be in either one of these phase regimes. Of course, we also have to look at the state of sea ice in the Arctic, especially around Siberia. As they have repeatedly done since the pandemic erupted, Murphy and his administration urged residents to take precautions, saying their personal behavior can change the future. In this section, we’ll look at various tropical based parameters, stratospheric influences, cryosphere state, and more! I expect both phases to show up this winter. A significant reduction in Arctic Sea Ice in the late Fall can produce a significant thermal gradient between the landmasses and the Arctic Ocean, which in turn can disrupt the Polar Vortex and cause a significant displacement in the Polar Vortex towards the Mid Latitudes. This part of the discussion focuses on the scientific thought behind the forecast. At a Glance. NOAA is forecasting temperatures above average for all of the United States. Typically, the MJO is less of a factor in ENSO active years, however, this year I think given the warmer western Pacific, the MJO phases can give us a clue on where the pattern is going over the next 10 to 15 days. The Farmer’s Almanac has been around since 1792 and while its seasonal weather predictions are correct just over 50 percent of the time, they’re always fun to investigate…kind of like reading a daily horoscope. FACTORS THAT COULD CREATE HAVOC ON WINTER FORECAST. Precipitation will average near to below normal. 2020 Winter Predictions—Early Season Weather Forecast Released by NOAA. Most of the storm tracks will be north of this region with a straight Pacific influence with above normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. Above-normal snowfall is likely in the Green and White Mountains. Here's what you can expect for the 2020/2021 winter with a La Nina Advisory in effect. The overall environment has been supporting a recurring development of the Ural Blocking mechanism, which has been known to cause disruptions of the Polar Vortex. The objective of this forecast is to provide an overview of the national and regional themes of this upcoming winter. Now, that doesn’t mean we’ll end up with the results for you snow lovers, but the atmospheric themes will be the same in the Pacific weather pattern. As a result, the potential for high latitude blocking was severely cut short. In this regime, storm tracks can cut up towards the Eastern Great Lakes, the Hudson River Valley, or move straight through the northern Mid Atlantic. Waves of above and below normal temperatures are expected which will average above normal while near to below normal precipitation can be expected. These storms would be minor snow producers for the region but can produce significant ice accumulation for locations like the Poconos and Catskills. Still, we are clearly dealing with a La Nina this year and one with a focus towards NINO 3 rather than NINO 4, which would suggest more of an east based orientation in this year’s La Nina. Our long-range forecasters break down the upcoming winter season for the contiguous U.S., including where it will be wet and mild, and when the polar vortex might make its bitter return. Farmers’ Almanac Releases 2020-21 Forecast For NJ Tom Davis 8/26/2020. The following two maps are the seasonal storm tracks that I am expecting this winter. Precipitation will be above normal and snow near to slightly above normal. The public’s cooperation is vital to protecting our fellow residents and our hospital staff.”. Northwest United States: In this region, storms will invade from the Gulf of Alaska with significant snowfall for the mountains and above normal rainfall along the coast. The evolution of the QBO mimics the 2010/2011 season which also is a healthy match given that the winter season also featured a moderate La Nina. Precipitation will be above normal. All rights reserved (About Us). What matters is the atmospheric response and in this case, the SOI has been and continues to be in the range of around +8 SOI for the seasonal and monthly, which would correspond to a weak La Nina to a moderate La Nina. Annual Weather SummaryNovember 2020 to October 2021. I must stress again that just because the Polar Vortex splits or displaces, that the orientation will be favorable for a cold winter in the Eastern United States. 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